Economic Outlook

Anticipating Business Slowdown

VIVAnews - Despite increased business activities in the third quarter of 2008, it is predicted that activities in the last three months of 2008 will slow down.

The slowdown in business activities is due to global economic pressure on the Indonesian economy, according to Bank Indonesia's survey on business activities in the third quarter of 2008.

"Businesses and selling prices in the fourth quarter of 2008 is estimated to increase. But it will slow down compared to the previous period," VIVAnews quoted the survey from Bank Indonesia's web page, Nov 25.

It is anticipated that the improving business activities will be affected by domestic demands as well as seasonal factors such as Christmas and New Year. It is also estimated that business expansion will occur in all economic sectors, with finance, leasing, services, agriculture, animal farming, forestry, fisheries, mining, trade, hotel and restaurant sectors as top contributors.

The expanded economic sector does not lead to its subsectors' growth. There are some economic subsectors that are anticipated to stimulate businesses in the fourth quarter: distribution industry, machineries, forestry and excavation subsectors.

Meanwhile, the subsectors providing largest contribution in business expansion in the fourth quarter includes bank, oil and gas mining, and food plant sectors.

Concerning selling prices, survey at large shows that the fourth quarter is estimated to grow, yet lower than selling prices in the third quarter. It is anticipated that the increased selling prices will affect almost every surveyed economic sector. Three economic sectors which is expected to significantly contribute to increase in selling prices in the fourth quarter of 2008 include processing industry, trading, hotels and restaurants, agriculture, animal farming, forestry and fisheries sectors.

Meanwhile, the mining and excavation sectors may still be subject to selling price decrease by fourth quarter. Oil and gas sectors will be minus 1.92 percent due to the continuing world oil price decrease. Non oil and gas mining will be minus 0.22 percent.

Translated by: Bonardo Maulana W

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29 Maret 2024